Blockchain research: Blockchain.com's CFTC bid for prediction markets

The news

Blockchain.com has applied to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for two licenses, the company told CNBC. One is a designated contract market (DCM) license, which would let it run a futures exchange for event contracts. The other is a futures commission merchant (FCM) license, which would allow it to act as a broker for derivatives. Together they would let the company run a regulated marketplace for retail and institutional customers in the United States.

The company already offers some of this abroad through partners. This year it began providing prediction markets to some international customers through Polymarket, along with perpetual futures powered by the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid. A CFTC license would let it operate its own venue and not route orders through third parties. Co-founder and CEO Peter Smith said the aim is to let users manage digital assets, trade derivatives and bet on real-world events in one place.

According to CNBC, 11 other companies have filed for DCM licenses this year, and the CFTC has approved six new ones in 2026.

Our analysis

The application shows where crypto firms see growth. Spot trading revenue moves with prices, while derivatives and event contracts can attract volume in any market direction. Prediction markets in particular have drawn mainstream attention, and Bernstein analysts have projected, as Decrypt reports, that the sector could reach a $10 trillion market and bring in billions in revenue by the end of the decade. That is a forecast, not a measured figure.

The choice of a federal license is also a legal strategy. State gambling regulators have sued prediction-market operators including Kalshi and Polymarket. A CFTC designation gives an operator a federal claim to jurisdiction, which is the argument the agency itself has been making. For a company whose current prediction product depends on partners, owning the exchange and broker functions moves compliance in-house and removes a dependency on a third party that could change terms or face legal pressure.

The timing is deliberate. The CFTC recently sent the White House new rules aimed at cementing its authority over prediction markets, and a firm that holds its own license would be positioned to operate under whatever framework results. Blockchain.com also serves both retail and institutional customers, which fits a model where one exchange sells to individual users and professional traders alike.

The two licenses divide the work. The DCM covers the venue where contracts trade. The FCM covers customer accounts and order routing. Holding both lets a platform control the full path from a user’s deposit to a settled contract, which is how established derivatives firms operate.

Room for disagreement

An application is not an approval. The CFTC has approved six new DCMs this year while 11 other companies have filed for them, so Blockchain.com enters a crowded field and approval timing is uncertain. The legal basis for event contracts is also contested. The CFTC recently sent the White House new rules meant to confirm its authority over prediction markets, and a court fight over whether event contracts are federally regulated swaps, with the NFL and others on one side and Kalshi on the other, has drawn the Supreme Court’s attention. A ruling against the federal position could reduce the value of a CFTC license.

What to watch

Track the CFTC’s decision on the application and any conditions attached, the progress of the proposed rules on event contracts, and the Supreme Court’s handling of the Kalshi case. Also watch whether Blockchain.com keeps its Polymarket and Hyperliquid partnerships once it has its own venue. Competitors’ approvals will also show how long the CFTC takes to clear applications.